The Shifting Landscape in Lebanon
After a 12-day war initiated by Israel and briefly supported by the United States, Iran has found itself in a weakened position. This shift has significant consequences for another country in the region: Lebanon. Hezbollah, Iran's primary ally in Lebanon, had already suffered substantial losses during its conflict with Israel in October 2024. These losses included a reduction in fighters, military arsenal, and public support.
Iran’s government is now struggling to maintain the same level of financial and strategic support for Hezbollah that it previously provided. In addition, the U.S. has introduced new conditions for a potential agreement that would involve Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon in exchange for the complete disarmament of Hezbollah—a proposal that appears to have the backing of the Lebanese government.
As an expert on Lebanese history and culture, I believe that these evolving regional dynamics present an opportunity for the Lebanese state to adopt a more neutral stance and distance itself from the conflicts that have long contributed to the country's deep-seated issues.
The Origins of Hezbollah
The development of Hezbollah can be traced back to the Iranian Revolution of 1978-79, which overthrew the Western-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and established an Islamic republic. This revolution resonated deeply with the Shiite population in Lebanon, where a politically sectarian system had led to discrimination against underrepresented groups.
Since Lebanon's independence from France in 1943, power has largely been concentrated among Maronite Christians and Sunnis, leaving Shiite communities in south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley underserved in terms of development, social services, and infrastructure. At the same time, Lebanon has been profoundly affected by the politics of its powerful neighbor, Israel.
In 1948, Israel forcibly displaced over 750,000 Palestinians, an event known as the Nakba. Many of these refugees settled in Lebanon, particularly in the impoverished south and Bekaa Valley, which became centers of Palestinian resistance against Israel.
In 1978, Israel invaded Lebanon to push Palestinian fighters away from its northern borders, resulting in civilian casualties and displacement. A second invasion in 1982 aimed to eliminate the Palestinian Liberation Organization, leading to thousands of deaths and the siege of Beirut.
It was within this turbulent environment that Hezbollah emerged as a paramilitary group in 1985, fueled by Shiite mobilization following the Iranian revolution and Israel’s invasion and occupation.
Hezbollah’s Influence and Challenges
Over time, with sustained support from Iran, Hezbollah evolved into a major player in the Middle East. It intervened in the Syrian civil war to support the Assad regime and backed the Kata'ib Hezbollah, a dominant Iraqi pro-Iranian militia. In 2016, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, publicly acknowledged Iran’s role in funding their operations.
With Tehran's backing, Hezbollah functioned almost as a state within a state, using its political influence to block most parliamentary decisions it opposed. This led to three prolonged presidential vacuums in Lebanon: from November 2007 to May 2008; from May 2014 to October 2016; and finally from October 2022 to January 2024.
Lebanon also experienced a series of political assassinations between 2005 and 2021, targeting individuals who criticized Hezbollah. These events underscored the group's dominance and the challenges faced by opposition voices.
Changing Dynamics and New Opportunities
The recent weakening of both Hezbollah and Iran, due to their conflicts with Israel since late 2023, has created significant political shifts in Lebanon. The latest presidential vacuum ended amid Hezbollah's military setbacks, with Joseph Aoun elected as president.
Despite the threat of violence, the Lebanese opposition to Hezbollah has grown bolder, openly criticizing the group and advocating for political neutrality. These voices, which cautiously emerged during the Syrian civil war in 2011, have gained momentum after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks and the subsequent war on Gaza.
During the latest Israel-Iran conflict, the opposition felt emboldened to reiterate its call for neutrality. With the U.S. playing an increasing role in shaping Lebanon’s direction, some opposition figures have even suggested normalizing relations with Israel.
These efforts to keep Lebanon out of the cycle of violence are not insignificant. In the past, such calls would have been seen as treasonous, but today they represent a new direction in how leaders perceive domestic politics and regional diplomacy.
Regional Context and Future Prospects
As the political landscape in Lebanon evolves, Hezbollah faces unprecedented financial challenges, making it difficult to meet the needs of its fighters or fulfill promises to rebuild destroyed homes. Meanwhile, Iran, grappling with its own internal issues, has less capacity to provide meaningful support to Hezbollah from abroad.
However, Hezbollah remains a formidable political and military force, especially given ongoing skirmishes with Israel, which provide it with an external pretext. The ceasefire brokered by the U.S. and France in November 2024 did not end hostilities, as Israel continues to attack southern Lebanon regularly.
Hezbollah continues to resist disarmament, positioning itself as the sole defender of Lebanon’s territorial integrity, which undermines the authority of the Lebanese army and state. Syria, another key neighbor, will also play a crucial role. The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 has diminished Hezbollah’s regional influence and access to Iraq and Iran. The new Syrian leadership shows little interest in supporting Iranian Shiite ideology and instead seeks to empower the Sunni community, which was oppressed under Assad.
While it is too early to predict the full impact, border tensions could lead to sectarian violence or land loss. However, the new Syrian government seems open to diplomatic engagement with Israel, marking a shift from decades of hostility.
The U.S. will continue to play a central role in shaping the future of Lebanon and the region. While the U.S. has pressured Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, there has been no fundamental change yet. For Lebanon to achieve true neutrality, progress toward peace in Gaza and assurances that Iran will not use Hezbollah as a proxy in the future will be essential.
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