The Structural Challenges Facing Trump’s Second Presidency
During Donald Trump's 2016 campaign, many of his supporters highlighted his 1987 book, "The Art of the Deal," as proof that he was a skilled negotiator capable of getting things done. They believed that his business acumen translated well into political leadership. However, critics argued that running a business and governing a country are fundamentally different endeavors. While Trump's approach might work in high-end real estate, it often falls short when applied to the complex structure of the federal government.
Trump, who was voted out of office in 2020 but narrowly won a second term in 2024, is now six months into his second presidency. In an op-ed published by the New York Times on July 22, historian Stephen Wertheim, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the challenges Trump faces in the White House. Wertheim describes these challenges as a "structural bind" that conflicts with Trump's "thoroughly situational" approach to governance.
At the start of Trump’s second term, history seemed to repeat itself, but with added intensity. Trump expressed a stronger determination to be a "peacemaker and unifier," as he stated. This sentiment caused concern among foreign policy experts in Washington, who feared he might disrupt established policies. At the same time, advocates for reduced American military intervention in global affairs, including Wertheim himself, held some hope. Trump emphasized in his inaugural address that success should be measured not only by the battles won but also by the wars ended and the wars never started.
This standard, while commendable, has proven difficult for Trump to meet. Six months into his presidency, he has failed to deliver any significant peace, whether in Europe or the Middle East. His recent strike on Iran exemplifies his struggles: a rushed and clumsy attempt at negotiation that ended in a risky attack, setting the stage for further conflict.
According to Wertheim, "inartful dealings" are only part of the problem Trump faces half a year into his second term. He describes Trump as a "thoroughly situational man" caught in a "deeply structural bind." Every year, the United States stations its military forces on geopolitical fault lines across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. As a result, the country inherits distant conflicts and frequently finds itself reacting to crises dictated by its adversaries.
Wertheim points out that if Trump truly wants to reduce the nation's heavy defense burdens, he must withdraw from the position that perpetuates them. However, despite his rhetoric and the concerns of his critics, it remains unclear whether Trump will even attempt this change.
Key Issues in Trump's Approach
- Structural Challenges: The U.S. military presence in volatile regions creates a cycle of inherited conflicts.
- Inconsistent Leadership: Trump's situational approach struggles against the rigid structures of international politics.
- Military Interventions: Recent actions, such as the strike on Iran, highlight the risks of hasty decisions without long-term strategy.
- Defense Burdens: Reducing military commitments requires a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy, which remains uncertain under Trump.
Implications for the Future
As Trump continues his second term, the question remains whether he can navigate these structural challenges effectively. The historian suggests that without a clear plan to address the underlying issues, the U.S. may continue to face instability and conflict. For those hoping for a more restrained foreign policy, the path forward seems uncertain. The coming years will test whether Trump can transform his vision of peace into tangible results.