Political Tensions and the Future of Leadership in Cameroon
Cameroon’s political landscape is currently under significant strain, as long-serving President Paul Biya prepares for his eighth term in office. The ruling party, the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), has ensured that Biya faces minimal competition, with key opposition figures barred from participating in the upcoming October 12 presidential election. This move has sparked widespread concerns about the integrity of the electoral process and the future of democratic governance in the country.
Biya, who has been in power for over four decades, has maintained a tight grip on the government, often operating through trusted allies rather than engaging directly with the public. His decision to run for re-election at the age of 92 has raised questions about the stability of the nation and the legitimacy of the electoral system. Despite calls for him to step down, Biya remains determined to contest the election, positioning himself as one of the oldest candidates ever to seek an elective office globally.
The Constitutional Council, Cameroon’s highest judicial body for electoral matters, recently upheld the decision by the electoral commission to exclude prominent opposition leader Prof Maurice Kamto from the race. Kamto, who was seen as the strongest challenger to Biya, had previously contested the decision, arguing that his exclusion was politically motivated. His legal team and human rights organizations have criticized the verdict, claiming it represents a manipulation of the law rather than a legitimate legal outcome.
The exclusion of Kamto has led to increased tensions, with reports of police using tear gas against pro-Kamto supporters and detaining dozens of individuals following the council’s ruling. The situation highlights the growing unrest in the country and raises concerns about the potential for further conflict.
A Test for Cameroon’s Stability
Experts suggest that the upcoming elections will serve as a critical test for Cameroon’s stability and the credibility of its electoral institutions. Enrica Picco, director of the Central Africa project at the Crisis Group, emphasized the need for transparency and fairness in the electoral process. She noted that for the government to gain public trust, it must ensure that the polls are conducted transparently, relax the prosecution of the opposition and civil society, and guarantee safe voting conditions in conflict-affected areas such as the Anglophone regions and the Far North.
Despite the CPDM’s dominance, there are signs of internal dissent within the ruling party. Some of Biya’s allies have chosen to run against him, challenging his authority and signaling a potential shift in power dynamics. Candidates such as Serge Espoir Matomba, Bello Bouba Maigari, and Issa Tchiroma Bakary have entered the race, representing a departure from the traditional loyalty expected from CPDM members.
However, the presence of these candidates does not necessarily indicate a more competitive election. The number of contenders has been reduced to 12 after the Constitutional Council invalidated the candidacy of Dzipang Hilaire Marcaire, who had previously been cleared by the electoral commission.
Challenges to Democratic Processes
The exclusion of Kamto and other opposition figures has drawn sharp criticism from human rights lawyers and activists. Felix Nkongho Agbor, founder of the Centre for Human Rights and Democracy in Africa, described the verdict as a calculated attempt to undermine the democratic process and demoralize citizens seeking genuine change. Manidem, Kamto’s political movement, accused the Constitutional Council of being influenced by Biya’s administration, pointing out that most members of the judicial body are affiliated with the ruling party.
Biya’s control over the state apparatus is extensive, allowing him to appoint key officials without scrutiny. In April, he appointed Monique Ouli Ndongo, a former CPDM senator, to the Constitutional Council, raising concerns about the independence of the body. Critics argue that this appointment undermines the judiciary’s impartiality and reinforces the perception of a government that prioritizes political loyalty over judicial integrity.
Longevity and Succession Concerns
Biya’s tenure in government began in the early 1960s, when he served as director of Cabinet in the Ministry of National Education. Over the years, he held various high-ranking positions, eventually becoming president in 1982. His ability to maintain power for so long has been attributed to his understanding of political strategy, although critics highlight the role of fraudulent elections and a campaign machine supported by government resources.
The removal of presidential term limits in 2008 allowed Biya to extend his rule indefinitely, granting him immunity from prosecution while in office. This constitutional change has further consolidated his power and raised concerns about the lack of a clear succession plan.
The Road Ahead
With the opposition divided and lacking a unified candidate, the prospects for a fair and competitive election remain uncertain. Arrey Ntui, a senior analyst for Cameroon at the Crisis Group, noted that tensions are likely to increase as the election approaches. He highlighted the importance of all candidates adhering to a code of conduct to prevent hate speech and reduce the risk of unrest.
Despite Biya’s efforts to secure his position, the challenges facing Cameroon are significant. The country must address deep-seated issues of governance, political inclusion, and security to ensure a stable and democratic future. As the October election draws near, the actions of both the government and the opposition will play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of the nation.