The Devastating Impact of the Sudanese Conflict on Economy and Society
Since April 2023, Sudan has been caught in a brutal conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. What began as a power struggle has escalated into a national crisis, with far-reaching consequences for the country's people, economy, and infrastructure. Over 14 million individuals have been displaced, while the health and education systems have collapsed under the weight of the war. Food insecurity now threatens more than half of Sudan’s population, which numbers around 50 million.
The war has disrupted key economic sectors, leading to severe economic contractions and worsening poverty and unemployment. According to the Sudanese finance minister, the conflict has caused economic losses exceeding $26 billion by November 2023—more than half of the country’s economy from the previous year. The industrial sector, which includes manufacturing and oil refining, has lost over 50% of its value. Employment has dropped by 4.6 million jobs, pushing more than 7 million people into poverty. The agrifood system alone has shrunk by 33.6%, with informal economy losses not included in these figures.
My research uses economy-wide models to analyze how conflict impacts national development. In a recent study, I and my colleagues explored what would happen to Sudan’s economy and poverty levels if the war continues through 2025. We used a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model to assess the economic impact of the conflict. This tool captures how shocks affect different sectors and other agents of the economy, such as firms, government, and households.
Economic Projections Under Different Scenarios
Based on our modeling, the results are alarming: the conflict could shrink Sudan’s economy by over 40% from 2022 levels, plunging millions more into poverty. We modeled two scenarios to capture potential trajectories:
- Extreme Scenario: A sharp initial collapse with a 29.5% contraction in 2023, followed by 12.2% in 2024 and 7% in 2025.
- Moderate Scenario: Based on World Bank projections, this scenario involves a 20.1% contraction in 2023, 15.1% in 2024, and 7% in 2025.
Our findings suggest that if the conflict persists, Sudan’s economy could contract by up to 42%, from $56.3 billion in 2022 to $32.4 billion by the end of 2025. Agriculture, the backbone of livelihoods, will be severely impacted, and the social fabric of the country will continue to deteriorate.
How the Study Was Conducted
We used a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, drawing data from various national and international sources to show the impact of conflict on the economy, its sectors, and household welfare. By connecting this to government and World Bank data, we were able to simulate how conflict-driven disruptions affect the economy, its sectors, and household welfare.
Key Findings
Under the extreme scenario, several critical outcomes are expected:
- GDP Collapse: Sudan’s GDP could fall by up to 42%, meaning the country would produce less than 60% of its pre-conflict output. This would affect incomes, jobs, government revenues, and public services. The industrial sector, concentrated in Khartoum, would see output drop by over 50%. Services like education, health, transport, and trade would fall by 40%, while agriculture would lose over 35% of its value.
- Job Losses: Nearly 4.6 million jobs—half of all employment—could disappear. Urban areas and non-farm sectors would be most affected, with over 700,000 farming jobs at risk.
- Income Decline: Household incomes would drop across all groups, with rural and less-educated households suffering the most.
- Poverty Spike: Up to 7.5 million more people could fall into poverty, increasing the overall poverty rate significantly. Rural areas would see the highest rise, with women in rural communities particularly hard-hit.
Why These Findings Matter
Sudan was already in a fragile state before the war, grappling with decades of underinvestment, international sanctions, and institutional breakdown. The conflict has reversed progress in poverty reduction and dismantled essential productive sectors. Every month of continued fighting deepens the damage and raises the cost of rebuilding.
Our projections already indicate major economic collapse, but they do not account for the full extent of the damage, including informal economy losses or the strain on household coping strategies. The actual situation may be even worse.
What Needs to Be Done
First and foremost, achieving peace is essential for any recovery. Without an end to the fighting, recovery will be impossible. Even as the conflict continues, urgent action is needed to stabilize livelihoods:
- Support Agriculture: Sustain food production in relatively safe areas to prevent famine.
- Restore Critical Services: Focus on transport, trade, and retail to keep local economies functioning.
- Protect Vulnerable Groups: Expand social protection and provide targeted cash assistance to women in rural areas and the elderly.
Additionally, the international community must begin preparing for post-conflict reconstruction. This includes investing in public infrastructure, rebuilding institutions, and re-integrating displaced populations.
The Bottom Line
Sudan’s war is more than a political crisis—it is an economic catastrophe unfolding in real time. It is deepening poverty, destroying livelihoods, and erasing years of progress. Our research provides hard data on the daily struggles of Sudanese families. The country’s economy is bleeding, and without a shift in the trajectory of the conflict, recovery could take decades—if it happens at all.