In what can only be described as a stunning diplomatic move, US President Donald Trump has personally confirmed his attendance at the 47th Asean-related summits on Oct 26-28 in Kuala Lumpur. His early commitment made directly to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim breaks with protocol and represents a rare gesture of goodwill toward Asean.
US presidents typically delay such confirmations until the last minute, often treating Asean events as an afterthought compared to bilateral or multilateral summits with higher strategic returns. Even when confirmed, the level of representation is frequently downgraded.
With Mr Trump now expected in town, Malaysia can plan. Beyond the 13th Asean-US Summit, new initiatives and side events can be organised to capitalise on his presence. That said, Mr Trump is always prone to changing his mind.
During his first term, Mr Trump's engagement with Asean was spotty at best. He attended only the 5th Asean-US Summit in November 2017 and left the East Asia Summit halfway through. This time, however, he appears to be rewarding Mr Anwar for brokering the Thai-Cambodian ceasefire deal. At a recent press conference, Mr Anwar publicly credited Mr Trump for the initiative. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai also expressed their gratitude. Asean leaders have since showered Mr Trump with praise, augmenting his ego. After all, "gaining face" is part of Asean's cultural DNA.
Mr Trump's decision to attend is an acknowledgement of Asean as a pivotal regional group despite his preference for transactional engagement. The summit is expected to draw numerous heads of state. There would be one-on-one sideline meetings. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who shares decades of personal rapport with Mr Anwar, has been invited to attend the Asean summit. The Malaysian chair also plans to invite other influential guests to Kuala Lumpur.
In his second term, having spent considerable time focused on Middle East diplomacy, Mr Trump may finally discover that Asean leaders are more cooperative and more pleasant to deal with. The Thai-Cambodian truce only materialised because of the region's diplomatic resilience, led by a Muslim leader mediating between two Buddhist-majority countries. For Mr Trump, this is a rare political opportunity that could bolster his resume for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination.
To leave his mark on Asean, however, Mr Trump must surpass the record of his predecessor and political rival, President Barack Obama, who during his two terms (2008-2016) became one of the region's most popular Western leaders. Mr Obama attended seven Asean summits. Most memorably, during the 37th Asean Summit in Kuala Lumpur in 2015, he personally invited all Asean leaders to a special and stand-alone US-Asean summit at Sunnylands, California, in February 2016.
That event was pulled together in just three months, which was amazingly fast by diplomatic standards. It also marked the first time that the US formally recognised Asean centrality in its official documents.
Mr Trump could eclipse Mr Obama's Asean legacy through three straightforward steps. First of all, he could serve as the leading guarantor of peace and stability in the region. Branding himself the "President of Peace", Mr Trump could build on the Thai-Cambodian truce and offer his hand in other regional flashpoints. But it must be an Asean-led process.
Secondly, he should revive the special US-Asean summit he had planned in Las Vegas during his first term but had to cancel due to Covid-19. The idea of gathering Asean leaders in Las Vegas -- a city with casinos -- holds a unique allure. It could be a soft-power spectacle to reinvigorate US-Asean ties.
Finally, Mr Trump should restart the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative, the signature Obama-era program connecting over 60,000 young leaders across Asean and its dialogue partners. The initiative was shelved after his administration gutted USAID. Mr Trump can flip the script by relaunching it under a new name -- perhaps "Trump's Young Southeast Asian Leadership Initiative".
If Mr Trump achieves these three goals, he could easily surpass Mr Obama's standing in Southeast Asia. A few well-placed words in Bahasa Malayu -- such as madani (civilised), terima kasih (thank you), and apa khabar (how are you) --would go a long way. Mr Obama endeared himself to Indonesians with similar linguistic gestures. And yes, lowering US tariffs -- still a steep 19% for Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines -- before arriving would not hurt either.
With five months remaining in his Asean chairmanship, Mr Anwar must act swiftly to consolidate the bloc's credibility in crisis management. Top priority would be to make tangible progress on the four-and-a-half-year Myanmar quagmire. With renewed moral authority, Asean under Mr Anwar can engage more effectively with all Myanmar stakeholders to push for substantive progress for the Asean Five-Point Consensus.
Myanmar's junta has announced plans to hold elections between late December and early January as part of its exit strategy. However, the international community has widely condemned the move as a facade to legitimise military rule. At the upcoming summit, the Asean chair can press for a more inclusive process, urging the junta to broaden participation. At the same time, dialogue among all parties must begin, though they remain deeply out of sync.
Nay Pyi Taw, for its part, believes it can still hold the elections, which will reportedly cover 267 of Myanmar's 330 townships, roughly 80% of the country. It will rely on locally manufactured electronic voting machines. Resistance forces, however, reject the elections and still remain active in rural battlefields.
Here, the Asean chair can enlist major powers -- particularly the US, China, India, and Russia -- to help push all parties toward dialogue and an eventual ceasefire. These dialogue partners and Asean will be essential in guaranteeing Myanmar's stability in the future. The recent ceasefire agreement between Myanmar and armed ethic groups was no mere optics as it was a carefully calibrated diplomatic moment. It helps demonstrate that Asean is not just a talk shop.
Given the current fractured geopolitical landscape, the October summit is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in Asean history. The chair must use the opportunity presented by Mr Trump's presence and other global leaders to secure firm commitments that will reinforce Asean's strategic autonomy for years to come.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).