Analysts suggest Wellington's new US$5.2 billion defence plan is a hedge against pressure from Donald Trump's White House For decades, both New Zealand and Australia have been "pretty slack" on military spending, Wellington's defence minister recently conceded in a striking admission that analysts say was aimed as much at Washington as at a sceptical public at home.
Judith Collins told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation on August 14 that she sympathised with the United States' demands for its allies to share more of the defence burden, adding in an interview in Wellington that American taxpayers had carried the weight for too long.
Washington had not pressed New Zealand directly, she said, but the broader push for Western allies to spend more on defence was clear.
Collins' comments come as New Zealand is embarking on its most ambitious military investment in years. In April, the government unveiled a Defence Capability Plan that will lift spending to NZ$9 billion (US$5.2 billion) in the next financial year, with a goal of reaching roughly 2 per cent of gross domestic product within four years.
That would mean an additional NZ$12 billion on defence, more than doubling the current outlay of under 1 per cent of GDP.
Australia, which currently spends 2 per cent of GDP on defence, has been urged by Washington to raise its contribution to 3.5 per cent over the next decade.
Collins' frank assessment was designed to prepare New Zealanders for a politically unpopular increase in military expenditure, said Anne-Marie Schleich, an adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
"This could be in response to the recent 15 per cent increase in US tariffs for New Zealand," said Schleich, who was the German ambassador to New Zealand from 2012 to 2016, noting that Australia's tariff rate had been set at 10 per cent.
Wellington had reportedly expected to receive the same tariff rate as its larger neighbour, with New Zealand's trade minister dispatched to Washington last week to discuss the reasons for the new levy.
Alan Tidwell, director of the Centre for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies at Georgetown University in the US, said Collins was signalling "her awareness of the expectations coming out of Washington".
He suggested the remarks were also a hedge against further trade or security pressure from US President Donald Trump. "As New Zealand has thus far escaped the most intense attacks from Washington, she is trying to head it off," Tidwell said, adding that Wellington was rethinking how to engage in a region increasingly dominated by China and the "onslaught" of Trump's "America First" agenda.
Shrinking distances
New Zealand has long relied on its geographical remoteness as a buffer against global conflicts, but modern weapons systems have eroded that protection, according to Tidwell.
"Many of the assumptions of baby-boomer politicians no longer apply," he said. As a small state, New Zealand has to navigate its defence planning steps carefully. It's hard to see how Wellington can avoid increasing defence spending."
On Thursday, Collins announced the purchase of five MH-60R Seahawk helicopters for the navy and two Airbus A321 aircraft to replace the air force's ageing Boeing 757s, at a cost of NZ$2.7 billion. The move, she said, would ensure "a critical combat capable, interoperable and dependable fleet".
Foreign Minister Winston Peters framed the acquisitions as a direct response to "a sharply deteriorating security environment".
"We must invest in our national security to ensure our economic prosperity," he said on Thursday, adding that twice-yearly reviews of the Defence Capability Plan would enable it to adapt to the country's "ever-changing" needs.
Defence experts warn, however, that even a doubling of spending is likely to leave New Zealand playing catch up with its allies. Nato members agreed in June to raise their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, following sustained pressure on the transatlantic security alliance from Trump's White House.
"Despite our increase we were behind the pack, hence the need to do more to keep up," said Alexander Gillespie, a professor of law at the University of Waikato in New Zealand.
Collins also said in the interview that New Zealand had yet to be invited to join Aukus Pillar 2, the advanced technology arm of the trilateral security pact between Australia, Britain and the US.
Pillar 2 focuses on artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, quantum technologies and hypersonics - and is open to other close security partners such as Japan, South Korea and Canada.
In 2023, then US secretary of state Antony Blinken said the "door was very much open" for New Zealand to join.
Analysts suggest Wellington's absence may reflect broader strategic calculations, however.
"A lot of these macro decisions will be dealt with in the context of much wider strategic considerations at the moment, like peace in Ukraine," Gillespie said.
Hopes of progress on that front dimmed earlier this month when Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin met in Alaska in an unsuccessful attempt to end the war. Trump has since ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine, though he has floated the possibility of air support as part of a negotiated settlement.
The Pentagon is also reportedly reviewing the Aukus nuclear submarine agreement to ensure it aligns with Trump's priorities.
Until that review concludes, Tidwell said it was unlikely that New Zealand would be brought into the pact, which would also require consultation and agreement by all three current members.
More Articles from SCMP
205 prosecutions launched over subpar steel work at CK Asset Hong Kong project
Who is Otis Pavlovic from pop duo Royel Otis – and what’s his link to TSITP’s Lola Tung?
Counterterrorism drills a worthy exercise for Hong Kong
From Riyadh to Hong Kong: Saudi Super Cup fans make presence felt
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), the leading news media reporting on China and Asia.
Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.