When Rigathi Gachagua unveiled his new political party in May, the former deputy president promised to orchestrate the downfall of his erstwhile political ally, who had dramatically cast him aside.But six months later, his Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) has yet to mount a mega launch. It is also yet to hold the mass rallies he promised, and his plan to trigger a wave of legislative resignations has collapsed.This comes days after Mr Gachagua returned from a trip to the United States with what was expected to be a grand arrival, being disrupted by goons and failing to attract the masses of people promised by his party. The opposition leader blamed the government for sponsoring the goons, but the events on Thursday opened a window to the disruption that he could face as he seeks to consolidate his political base.Recent events reflect the formidable challenges facing Mr Gachagua as he seeks to transform his popularity into a political movement capable of denying President William Ruto a second term in 2027. His early missteps have drawn comparisons to the literary observation that some warriors exhaust themselves in preliminary battles, dancing themselves lame before the main dance begins.Mr Gachagua's difficulties underscore the harsh realities of Kenyan opposition politics, where parties without parliamentary representation struggle to secure funding, regional ethnic loyalties can become national liabilities, and the machinery of government can be deployed to frustrate challengers.The former deputy president has claimed to have secured millions of dollars in funding during a recent tour of the United States, but accessing such money would require navigating increasingly strict international money laundering laws that govern political financing — regulations that operate independently of what Kenya's government might prefer.Read: Inside coordinated X campaign targeting Gachagua's returnHis party now faces its first major test in 24 upcoming by-elections across the country, contests that political analysts say will determine whether Mr Gachagua can translate his bitter split with President Ruto into electoral success or whether he will join the ranks of failed political insurgents who never recovered from early setbacks.Proving loyaltyAhead of the 2017 elections, the government of President Uhuru Kenyatta froze accounts of Kalonzo Musyoka Foundation on allegations it was receiving unexplained monies from abroad.In another headache for the former DP, few politicians would resign their seats for an experiment aimed at proving loyalty to a man who is himself not in power. It’s a gamble fraught not just with risks of financial losses but also with the risk of political oblivion.Read: Why former DP Gachagua allies have grown cold feet on resignation planSo far, the party’s interim officeholders, save for deputy party leader Cleophas Malala, have also remained largely colourless, drawing criticism that the team lacks the political weight to excite supporters.In an interview with Kameme FM, a radio station that broadcasts in the Gikuyu language, days after the chaotic return from the United States, Mr Gachagua said President Ruto’s government had become so tainted that it was a blessing that he had been thrown out."Today, I thank God for the blessing of that impeachment. At first, I suffered, believing God had forsaken me. Today I know better, and I'm sorry for questioning God's ways. My stature has grown to levels I could not have imagined," he said.His main focus now, he says, is to prepare DCP for the upcoming 24 by-elections.He added, in reference to the seat left vacant after the appointment of Geoffrey Ruku to the Cabinet: "I am busy planning for DCP and its involvement in the upcoming by-elections, especially the Mbeere North parliamentary seat. It is very key to our core business as a party. How we perform in the other contests will be important in our 2027 planning." For Mr Gachagua, the DCP’s baptism of fire could be the by-elections expected to offer a first glimpse at whether the ex-DPs team can organise, mobilise and deliver votes.But trouble is already brewing. In Mt Kenya, where Mr Gachagua enjoys his strongest base, there are simmering disputes over who should carry the party ticket.In some counties, the opposition is pushing for joint candidates to avoid splitting votes — a move that could force the DCP to compromise on its visibility.A poor showing in these early tests risks puncturing the party’s momentum at the start, while strong performances could establish it as a credible alternative to UDA in key battlegrounds.There is also stiff competition from homegrown parties from Mount Kenya and other outfits within the united opposition, which are also likely to field candidates.Prof Kaburu Kinoti, a lecturer at Kenyatta University, says Mr Gachagua will target to influence elections in the entire Mt Kenya Region, Nakuru, Nairobi, Kajiado, Narok, Lamu and Western, especially around Kakamega and Vihiga, using Cleophas Malala’s efforts.“Mbeere will be a do-or-die for Gachagua. If DCP fields a candidate and loses to Kenya Kwanza, it will have far-reaching implications to the outfit’s future and Gachagua’s influence in Mount Kenya since it will show that he is unpopular. Should he win, then it will be a danger for Ruto that the region won't back him in 2027,” says Prof Kinoti.University of Nairobi’s Prof Winnie Mitullah, on the other hand, believes it will be difficult for Mr Gachagua to shed some tags. One is a tribal kingpin and is part of the mess of the system.“Gachagua was elected with Ruto, popularised and defended government programs and policies and was part of the system. Whether he opposes them now and tries to say he was lied to by the president, people will start doubting his values and ideologies. It will be difficult for him to shed this tag,” says Prof Mitullah.The other issue Mr Gachagua needs to grapple with is the costly affair of running a modern political party. Yet the DCP, unlike established outfits such as UDA and ODM, does not benefit from state funding tied to parliamentary strength. Nor does it have a strong tradition of grassroots subscriptions. He’s relying on individual members to finance DCP’s activities.“The question is not whether the party can raise money once or twice,” noted political analyst Prof Macharia Munene. “The bigger question is whether it can build a sustainable funding model to survive the long haul.”Another hurdle for the DCP is perception. The party is increasingly being painted as a Mt Kenya tribal outfit, a label that could hobble its attempts at national appeal.ODM leader Raila Odinga has also on several occasions trained his guns on Mr Gachagua over his past remarks on the "shareholding" model of governance, accusing him of promoting division and ethnic isolation.“The desperation in Ruto's camp now sees us withdrawing that support for him, and the best protest word they can hurl our way is tribalism—that we are tribalists to withdraw that support but not tribalists when we were voting for him and Raila Odinga," a defiant Mr Gachagua said during his radio interview.He added: "If rallying my people to refuse Ruto to a man is tribalism, then we are very proud to be so. The full force of our mission will be felt in 2027."Police have also been accused of frustrating DCP rallies, while a number MPs allied to Gachagua complain of being targeted with pressure to switch allegiance.In recent weeks, pro-government forces have intensified grassroots mobilisation in Nyeri, Murang’a and Kirinyaga — the same constituencies DCP is eyeing as its launch pad into national politics.Opposition unity“UDA knows very well that Gachagua is trying to build a base,” said political commentator Herman Manyora. “The state will do everything possible to choke that growth at the earliest opportunity.”Even as he fights to carve out space, analysts advise that Mr Gachagua must also navigate the delicate politics of opposition unity.His party is a partner in the broader anti-Ruto alliance that includes Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee, Wiper led by Kalonzo Musyoka, People’s Liberation Party under Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K and Justin Muturi’s DP.But building consensus in Kenya’s opposition has never been easy, analysts have warned.“Choosing a joint presidential candidate without alienating major partners requires deft negotiation, something previous coalitions have repeatedly stumbled over. Gachagua is walking a tightrope,” said advocate and analyst Chris Omore. “He wants his party to grow, but he also knows that if the coalition fractures, everyone loses to Ruto.”He adds: “It must navigate the high-stakes by-elections without imploding over nominations. Build a sustainable financial base beyond elite donations and expand its appeal beyond Mt Kenya and shed the tribal label,” the advocate adds.At the same time, Mr Gachagua has dared President Ruto’s government to arrest him — another key political hurdle he faces — even as he defended his utterances in the United States, from where he returned to Kenya after a six-week tour.Mr Gachagua, who said he had not broken any laws, insisted he remains unapologetic and dismissed Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen’s calls for him to record a statement for his utterances while in America."I promoted the beauty of my motherland Kenya. I told all who gave me their ear that this is a great country full of opportunities, but being taken down the drain by the excessive regime of President Ruto. I told all that the problem is not Kenya but Ruto. Where is the lie in that? Where is the crime?" he said in the interview.He said the calls for him to record a statement should only be for him to provide details against President Ruto and his close allies on the radar of American investigations.""Any other call made outside that bare minimum threshold is noise that I treat contemptuously... and if they feel they can make me cooperate with them by force, then they know all my homes. They know where to find me," he said.-Reporting by Mwangi Muiruri, Justus Ochieng and Rushdie Oudia.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).