Advanced predictive markers are now available to determine a baby's susceptibility to specific diseases after birth, along with their future height, skin color, and other characteristics. Hospitals that obtain genetic testing results from us regarding embryos have not yet consented to receiving physical prediction data, so we are not sharing it.
Dr. Steven Xu, co-founder of Genomic Prediction, a company focused on embryonic genetic testing, and an expert in genetic modeling, made these comments during an interview with the 8th WEEKLY BIZ. The technology used by genetic testing companies is frequently referred to as "modern-day fortune-tellers" because they can predict children's futures. This technology is developing quickly, making it possible, as shown in the science fiction movie *Gattaca*, to predict a child's characteristics or lower the risk of certain diseases before birth. In the film, parents choose their children's intelligence and looks, which influence their social status and future careers. For instance, unlike the main character Vincent, who is considered genetically inadequate, his brother is born as a "perfect child" after undergoing genetic modifications to eliminate risks for early baldness, nearsightedness, alcoholism, drug addiction, and obesity. As the movie states, "You couldn't have a child like this even with 1,000 natural pregnancies." Is an era where "super babies" are born soon approaching? WEEKLY BIZ spoke with global startups and experts from both domestic and international backgrounds to evaluate the current state of genetic testing technology and the central ethical discussions surrounding it.
◇From Risk of Cancer to Probability of Obesity
We introduce the likelihood of different diseases appearing via an 'Embryo Health Score' metric. This data assists parents and healthcare professionals in choosing the most suitable embryo," Dr. Xu stated. "Following the analysis of millions of DNA base sequences within an embryo, we determine the risk of significant conditions like breast cancer, prostate cancer, and schizophrenia," he added. "We perform embryonic testing to ensure that our clients' children are born and develop in the healthiest way possible.
Even if an embryo is not implanted into the mother's uterus, examining it can indicate the child's potential risk of developing cancer. The company states that individuals who originated from healthier embryos tend to live five years longer than those who were randomly implanted and raised to adulthood.
In recent times, with the growing number of parents facing infertility and an increasing number of individuals choosing in vitro fertilization (IVF), preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) for evaluating embryo health has become more common and advanced.
PGT-A, a procedure that identifies chromosomal irregularities (with a typical count of 46 chromosomes, arranged in 23 pairs), is carried out approximately 340,000 times each year in developed nations such as the United States and Europe, as reported by industry data. Choosing embryos free from chromosomal issues enhances the chances of successful implantation and lowers the likelihood of miscarriage, which explains the increasing use of these tests.
Furthermore, with the progression of genetic testing technology, PGT-P is quickly developing. This test forecasts a child's potential for diseases beyond just assessing embryo health, including complex conditions affected by environmental and lifestyle elements like obesity and mental illnesses, not only those caused by single-gene mutations. Dr. Xu mentioned, "If the risk score is high, we determine that the risk for certain diseases such as heart attacks is 5–10 times greater than usual."
◇ Investing Tens of Thousands of Dollars to Choose 'Healthy Embryos'
With the increasing availability of genetic testing, more parents are willing to pay for insights into whether their child will lead a healthy life.
Parents have an obligation to strive to provide their child with the best possible start in life. One part of this responsibility involves preventing illnesses, similar to how vaccinations work. In this context, genetic testing is simply another form of disease prevention," stated Dr. Rafal Smigrodzki, a U.S. neurologist who gained attention in 2020 as the first individual to undergo polygenic disease testing (PGT-P) and subsequently have a child. In May 2020, he chose the embryo with the lowest likelihood of developing serious conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer from four IVF embryos and welcomed his daughter Aurea. During an interview with Bloomberg, he mentioned, "I believed that genetic testing was something parents should consider.
As information circulated that genetic testing might lower the likelihood of a child inheriting certain diseases, an increasing number of U.S. parents are investing thousands to tens of thousands of dollars in these tests. Genomic Prediction stated that it has provided genetic risk scores for more than 1,600 embryos to 420 international clients as of January. Another genetic company, Nucleus Genomics, is also reported to have assisted thousands of customers.
Prominent business leaders are also taking an interest. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) stated that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have had genetic testing done during the birth of their children.
The demand for preimplantation genetic testing is increasing quickly. As per Research Nester, a U.S.-based market analysis company, the worldwide market is projected to grow from $858.88 million (around 1.26 trillion South Korean won) this year to $2.07 billion by 2035. Dr. Xu stated, "With roughly 2.5 million IVF treatments carried out globally each year, this number is anticipated to rise to 5 million by 2030. As a result, the genetic testing market could reach $10 billion per year."
Even though fertility rates around the world are decreasing, the industry thinks this won't have a major effect on growth. Dr. Xu stated, "Women are getting married later, and governments are paying more attention to addressing infertility. No matter the drop in birth rates, IVF procedures will rise quickly, and genetic testing will come next."
Increases in funding for associated startups are also on the rise. Orchid Health, established in 2019, has secured $16.5 million, backed by investors such as Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum (ETH), and Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase.
◇A World Creating 'Perfect Children'
The problem is that genetic testing technology is not only forecasting a child's health risks but also expanding to assess non-medical characteristics such as intelligence and physical appearance. Herasight, a U.S.-based genetic company, is exploring technology that can predict both genetic disorders and certain non-disease genetic traits.
Dr. Jonathan Anomaly, Herasight's ethics and policy advisor (previously a professor at Duke University), mentioned in a WEEKLY BIZ video interview, "We are creating technology to evaluate genetic scores for intelligence, which many individuals find intriguing, as well as predict height and body mass index (BMI). In the future, more advanced physical characteristics, like muscle mass, will be forecastable." This suggests a future where "ideal children" might be engineered.
Spencer Moore, Herasight's statistical geneticist, stated, "The quantity of embryos and their genetic 'luck'—the effectiveness of genetic mixtures—can expand parents' options. We possess top-tier research that predicts not only health risks but also cognitive abilities, offering strong predictive accuracy."
Nevertheless, some people claim that assertions regarding predicting intelligence are not supported by science and are simply promotional strategies. Shisha Gusef, a statistical geneticist at Harvard Medical School, posted on X, "I question why they haven't revealed the research supporting their IQ predictions. Are they leveraging opposition to eugenics to create buzz and secure additional funding?" This implies "noise marketing" aimed at sparking debate.
Professor Kim Jin-soo from KAIST's Graduate School of Engineering and Life Sciences stated, "Although genetics play a role in physical traits and intelligence, it remains uncertain which specific genetic variations are responsible. This area demands a careful approach, as it could evolve into a 'modern superstition' presented under the guise of genetic science." Professor Chung Choong-won from Seoul National University's Department of Life Sciences noted, "Our understanding of gene interactions that lead to complex diseases is still incomplete. While polygenic risk scores (PRS) hold statistical significance for large groups, their ability to predict outcomes for individual embryos decreases substantially."
◇Controversy Over ‘Modern Eugenics’
The process of choosing high-quality embryos using genetic screening is attracting interest not only for its scientific precision but also as a "political and ethical powder keg." Opponents ask how this is different from the eugenics policies of Nazi Germany, which aimed at racial purity. Eugenics, a pseudo-scientific idea developed by British scientist Francis Galton in 1883, suggested that human society could be "enhanced" through selective breeding. Modern efforts to apply advanced genetic testing in selecting embryos are seen by some as a return to "contemporary eugenics."
Gene editing, in addition to traditional selection methods, has already caused a significant reaction within the global community. In November 2018, Chinese scientist He Jiankui from the Southern University of Science and Technology revealed the birth of twin girls whose genetic makeup was altered to provide resistance against HIV. The worldwide scientific community criticized this action as "unleashing Pandora's box," and a Shenzhen court later sentenced him to three years in prison along with a fine of 3 million yuan (around $620,000), claiming he had "violated the ethical boundary."
Nevertheless, the ethical limits of selecting embryos through genetic testing are still not well defined. Opinions among the public regarding non-medical traits such as intelligence are split. A 2023 survey of 1,427 U.S. adults revealed that 36.9% favored intelligence-related genetic testing, 22.6% were undecided, and 40.5% rejected it.
Laws differ from one country to another. In South Korea, the Bioethics and Safety Act strictly bans genetic testing of embryos for non-medical reasons, permitting it only in cases of serious birth defects or chromosomal issues that have clear medical justification. This is why, even though the number of people experiencing infertility has risen sharply—from 228,618 in 2020 to 300,401 in 2024—there has been little public discussion about genetic testing of embryos.
On the other hand, the U.S. does not have federal rules regarding embryonic genetic testing or selection, as guidelines differ from one state to another. There is a range of expert views. Bardit Ravitzky, a former bioethicist from Montreal University, was criticized in The New York Times for stating, “We are already caught in genetic determinism. Technologies that imply a child’s future is genetically set support this determinism.”
Nevertheless, some people believe that the response is excessive. Margit Burmeister, a professor of human genetics at the University of Michigan and a scientific advisor for Nucleus Genomics, stated, "Given that affluent children already have benefits in education and university admissions, it's difficult to see IVF and embryo selection, which are also expensive, as ethically different."