Engineers propose a solution that could dramatically boost UAVs' prospects of evading advanced air defences In Ukraine, about nine in 10 Russian drones have been shot down by advanced air defences, according to various estimates.
Ukrainian air force data suggested that about 15 per cent of drones had penetrated its defences between April and June - rising from just 5 per cent previously.
But a group of Chinese aerospace engineers and defence researchers have now proposed a radical technological enhancement for combat drones that may dramatically increase their ability to survive to nearly 90 per cent.
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At the heart of the proposal was an innovative concept: fitting compact, side-mounted rocket boosters to small or medium-sized drones so they can perform instantaneous, high-G manoeuvres in the final seconds before a missile impact.
According to the researchers, this "terminal evasion" system allowed drones to perform abrupt, unpredictable course changes that even the most sophisticated missiles could not track or follow.
In extensive digital simulations detailed in a paper published in the Chinese defence journal Acta Armamentarii last month, the system saw a huge improvement in survival rates, passing 87 per cent.
In many cases, the drones effectively caused missiles to detonate harmlessly in empty space.
In modern wars, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, combatants have "extensively employed drones for reconnaissance and aerial combat, making [them] increasingly crucial on the battlefield," wrote the project team led by Bi Wenhao, an associate researcher with the National Key Laboratory of Aircraft Configuration Design in Northwestern Polytechnical University in Xian.
Chinese military analysts, after studying the war in Ukraine and other areas, "place higher demands on the evasion capability and survivability of unmanned combat aircraft," the team wrote.
Traditionally, drones are expected to make evasive moves long before the missile hits, but this can end their mission. As an alternative, Bi's team suggested taking evasive action at the last possible moment.
The concept hinges on three critical principles, the first is precise timing, which means the anti-drone missile must ignite within a one to two-second window before impact - early enough to alter trajectory, late enough to deny the missile time to correct.
The second is directional intelligence: the system must determine whether to climb, dive, or veer laterally based on the missile's approach vector.
The last of the three is thrust: the boosters must generate at least 16Gs of acceleration - far beyond what conventional aerodynamic control surfaces can achieve - ensuring a sudden, disorienting shift in flight path.
The project team faced some formidable challenges in integrating the rockets into a drone's airframe without disrupting aerodynamic stability.
The forces unleashed during ignition must be perfectly synchronised with the drone's flight control surfaces and onboard software - otherwise, the violent thrust could cause the aircraft to spin out of control or disintegrate mid-air.
Moreover, the system operates within a razor-thin time window. The booster burns for only about two seconds. Any delay - by mere fractions of a second - could render the manoeuvre useless.
There are also trade-offs that have to be considered. Adding weight, consuming payload space, and reducing fuel capacity all threatened the drone's range and mission endurance.
The researchers said they had validated their model through thousands of combat simulations and found that their evasion algorithm was able to execute complex compound manoeuvres to maximise the drones' ability to evade defences.
Once successfully miniaturised and integrated, such evasion systems could transform inexpensive drones into formidable, resilient strike platforms - capable of surviving in airspace once considered too dangerous.
In a conflict such as the war in Ukraine, where drones have already proven pivotal in intelligence gathering and precision attacks, a survivability boost of this magnitude could dramatically alter the nature of aerial warfare.
However, the concept has yet to be tested on a real battlefield. The drone would need to see the threat coming, sometimes from more than 200km (120 miles) away, and requires support from an integrated space-air-ground surveillance network.
Other challenges to overcome include delayed data transmission, particularly from distant satellites; signal jamming and misinformation; and insufficient onboard computing power for split-second decision-making.
The technology was designed to evade missiles with a top speed of Mach 4. Its effectiveness against hypersonic weapons remains unknown.
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This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), the leading news media reporting on China and Asia.
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