By Yoko Hirose, professor at Keio University
Japan's defense white paper this year strongly advocated for strengthening responses to "hybrid warfare," along with readiness for China's military coercion and gray zone situations. Hybrid warfare refers to modern warfare that combines regular warfare using military and irregular warfare that is not limited to military activities.
The irregular warfare is also called "invisible war," and it aims to collapse the society and institutions of the adversary from the inside, covering a wide range of tactics, including cyberattacks, information warfare, political threats, economic pressure, and the use of proxy forces. Especially in democratic countries, directly attacking weak foundations such as elections and speech space can cause considerable damage.
'Invisible War'
Russia is at the forefront of this hybrid warfare. During the war in Ukraine, especially since 2023, the number of Russian attacks in the West has increased, and their scope has expanded, and their quality has become extremely sophisticated and vicious. According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, the most prominent hybrid methods are election interference and information campaigns, attacks on critical infrastructure, including cutting submarine cables and sabotaging global positioning systems (GPS) for flights, violent acts including sabotage and terrorism, and "weaponization of refugees and migrants," which intentionally flood refugees and migrants to other countries.
Let's pay attention to information warfare and election interference, which account for the largest proportion. Now, Russia has gone beyond simply spreading disinformation and is also using artificial intelligence (AI) to engage in "doppelganger campaigns" of information manipulation in many Western countries.
This is to create fake media sites and social networking sites (SNS) accounts that look exactly like the real thing and spread false information in highly credible forms. In the "operation overlord," websites imitating major European newspapers such as France's "Le Monde" and Germany's "Bild" spread fake articles about fatigue in supporting Ukraine or inciting distrust of the European Union (EU). The state-backed operation had a multilayered structure of fake think tanks behind fake media, making the true source of information unclear. Russia deliberately informed fact-checking agencies of the existence of such fake information to overwhelm them with overwork. Information verification thus became impossible, further damaging the credibility of information in general.
In addition, operations that combine cyberattacks and information manipulation are on the rise, such as "Storm 1679," which is deployed by the cyber unit under the Main Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU).
Fierce election interference
Russia has used these methods to intervene in many elections in the West in recent years. Among them, Moldova, which I visited in March this year, is one of the forefronts. In the presidential election and referendum on whether to join the EU in the fall of 2024, Russia actively interfered by spreading disinformation and scattering money.
In this information war, propaganda was developed linking European integration to the "loss of state". In addition to providing campaign funds to pro-Russian candidates, as much as 200 million Euro (about 34 billion yen) were distributed to citizens, mainly pensioners and the poor, using cash, electronic money, prepaid cards, etc., to influence voting behavior. Many poor voters, despite their support for the EU, had no choice but to receive the money because their lives are difficult, and there are also many who had the illusion that they would be able to live a better life if Moldova became a pro-Russian country.
Many non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that have supported democracy on the ground are worried about continuing their activities due to the suspension of funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Democracy in Moldova is under attack by the trinity of money, information, and organization.
Such threats are not limited to Europe. Remember, in the United States, since the presidential election in 2016, disinformation has been spread on social media and stirred up division. In France, there was the "Macron Leaks" case caused by the hacking of President Macron files in 2017. In Germany, the personal information of hundreds of politicians from major political parties was leaked due to a cyberattack in 2019. Many traces of Russia's involvement in information leak cases have been confirmed in Europe and the United States.
Weakening the international order
In Western elections from last year to this year, many deepfake videos by Russia have been discovered. It is no exaggeration to say that hybrid warfare has become a war to protect elections and democracy for democratic countries.
Russia's goal is not necessarily to have pro-Russian candidates elected or targeted societies draw conclusions that are convenient for Russia. Rather, it is to erode trust in the electoral system itself and spread a sense of powerlessness toward elections and democracy. As a result, the legitimacy of targeted regimes are damaged, social divisions accelerate, and the solidarity among West countries Russia has confronted collapses, leading to the hollowing out of support for Ukraine, and ultimately weakening the international order.
The ultimate goal of Russia's information warfare is the loss of institutional trust in democratic countries and the collapse of solidarity among democratic countries. We should not forget that the rise of populist parties in European countries, distrust of elections and growing social divisions are exactly what Russia wants, and Russia has supported right-wing parties in Europe long before the war in Ukraine.
In Japan, suspicions of election interference by foreign countries were pointed out in the House of Councillors election in July. Although there is no clear evidence, it is crucial to take a multifaceted response with a strong sense of crisis.
One of the main goals of Russia's hybrid warfare is to cause the "implosion of democracy," so to speak. Rather than being blinded by military conflict, it is essential to embark on a long-term and strategic defense, or comprehensive security, of institutional, informational, and societal vulnerabilities. For Japan, it is urgent to reform the system to protect the transparency and fairness of elections, make information literacy an essential requirement of the educational curriculum, and develop a countermeasure system through international cooperation.
Once again, this year's defense white paper is significant in highlighting these crises in the non-military domain. Japan is already in the midst of an "invisible war," and we should recognize once again that the battle is evolving every day.