The ruling Pheu Thai Party is in freefall with no sign of bottoming out. However, the pressing question is: Can the party reverse its decline in time for the next election, which could come sooner rather than later?
The party, once a seemingly unshakable powerhouse, is facing one of the worst drops in popularity in its history.
A Nida (National Institute of Development Administration) Poll, one of the most trusted opinion polls, conducted June 19-25, showed the party's support plummeting from 28.05% to just 11.5% in a matter of months.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's personal approval has fallen even more sharply -- from 30.9% to 9.2%. In stark contrast, the upstart People's Party (PP) now commands 46% support, while the Bhumjaithai and United Thai Nation parties have gained ground.
The latest Nida survey conducted Aug 4-5, however, has painted an even grimmer picture for Pheu Thai. The poll was commissioned in the wake of the Thai-Cambodian border clashes.
Carried out among 1,310 respondents nationwide, it asked participants to rate their trust in various institutions.
For the armed forces, 75.7% expressed great trust, 19.3% had fair trust, 3.6% did not quite trust them, and 1% had no trust.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs received lower confidence levels, with 41.76% having no trust, 33.2% having little trust, 19.23% being fairly trusting, and only 4.89% having great trust.
The government ranked lowest in public confidence: 54.5% expressed no trust, 29% had little trust, 11.4% had fair trust, and 4.6% had great trust.
The survey also assessed satisfaction with each sector's role in solving the Thai-Cambodian dispute. For the armed forces, 75.4% were extremely satisfied, 19.8% fairly satisfied, 3.3% quite dissatisfied, and 1.2% totally dissatisfied.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs fared less well, with 40.3% not satisfied, 33.6% fairly dissatisfied, 20% quite satisfied, and 4.8% very satisfied. The government again scored lowest: 54.4% reported no satisfaction, 27.4% were quite dissatisfied, 13.7% fairly satisfied, and 4.2% completely satisfied.
The poll numbers are not merely a statistical blip -- they represent a dramatic shift in the political climate and raise existential questions for a party that has dominated Thai politics for decades.
While multiple factors are at play, analysts agree that the main cause of the collapse was the leaked phone call between Prime Minister Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. The conversation -- regarded by critics as overly deferential to Phnom Penh during a sensitive border dispute -- has been weaponised by opponents to accuse Pheu Thai of compromising national sovereignty.
Public outrage was fierce. Opposition figures called the leak evidence of weak leadership and poor crisis management. The government's slow, defensive response only deepened the perception that it was out of touch with national sentiment.
The damage has been particularly severe among rural and working-class voters who had been Pheu Thai's electoral backbone. In the party's traditional stronghold in the Northeast, long-standing loyalty is now fast eroding amid frustration over both foreign policy missteps and a perceived lack of attention to local needs, according to observers.
Adding to the pressure, Pheu Thai has faced internal dissent. Northeastern MPs, already unhappy over what they view as underrepresentation in the cabinet, have begun defecting to rival parties. This mirrors past political patterns, where perceived weakness at the top can set off a snowball effect of disunity and realignment.
The leadership's inability -- or unwillingness -- to placate these internal grievances has raised alarm over organisational discipline. Some commentators argue that the Shinawatra family's centralised decision-making style is now a liability, stifling fresh voices and making the party appear out of step with an electorate seeking new leadership dynamics.
While Ms Paetongtarn is holding her breath waiting for a Constitutional Court ruling which could see the axe fall on her premiership, her father, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, is bracing for the outcome of his lese majeste case stemming from a 2015 interview with a South Korean TV station and his "14th Floor" stay in a premium ward at Police General Hospital in lieu of serving his prison term behind bars.
With the next election on the horizon, time is not on Pheu Thai's side. The momentum shift towards the PP, the main opposition party, is not just about dissatisfaction with Pheu Thai -- it is also about voters finding a new political home. Once that psychological shift happens, winning them back becomes significantly harder.
Political strategist Anusorn Tamajai warns that if the party does not stabilise its base within the next six months, it risks being relegated to a secondary role in parliament.
"Pheu Thai must act decisively, or it will be remembered as the party that collapsed under the weight of its own complacency," he says.
While the situation is dire, it is not beyond repair. History in Thailand shows that parties have staged comebacks from deep slumps -- provided they take bold, visible steps to reframe the public narrative, said a source.
Even though Ms Paetongtarn made a poor televised address on the Hun Sen phone call scandal, she should offset the blunder by going on frequent visits to areas affected by the border skirmishes and offering meaningful assistance to residents.
In their hour of need, a strong sense of camaraderie must be reinforced, which could help stem the bleeding of party members.
Also, the perception that northeastern voices are underrepresented in government has to be tackled head-on. It was suggested that the party reshuffle ministerial positions to give the region a stronger influence, strengthening its commitment to long-time supporters.
The source added that Pheu Thai has long thrived on economic populism -- debt relief, rural investment, and job creation programmes. Bringing in a team of strong hands to manage such an agenda and deliver short-term results could re-energise its support base. Voters need to see tangible commitments, not just promises; rolling out immediate relief packages to ease cost-of-living pressures could make a quick impact.
Moreover, the party's decline could alter coalition dynamics. Rivals like Bhumjaithai are ready to position themselves as kingmakers, while defectors from Pheu Thai could tip the balance in parliament long before the public votes.
For now, the opinion polls are a stark warning: the electorate's patience is wearing thin. If Pheu Thai continues on its current trajectory, the next election may mark not just a temporary setback, but the end of its time as Thailand's dominant political force.
Talking about successors
The Constitutional Court is set to rule on the controversial leaked audio clip involving suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Aug 29, but many observers believe she is unlikely to return as premier -- whether by court order or resignation.
If she vacates office, the House of Representatives will vote to select her successor. Under the constitution, only prime minister candidates from the 2023 general election are eligible to be nominated.
However, rumours have been circulating ahead of the crucial ruling.
One claims that former prime minister and Pheu Thai Party de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra has struck a secret deal with Constitutional Court judges to influence the outcome -- a claim the party strongly denies and describes as an attempt to discredit both Thaksin and Ms Paetongtarn.
Another suggests that Thaksin might yield to some conservative voters' calls to allow for a possible return of former prime minister Gen Prayut Chan-ocha, who was listed as a prime ministerial candidate for the coalition United Thai Nation (UTN) Party in the 2023 polls.
Conservative voters, increasingly dissatisfied with existing parties, are leaning towards the military following its handling of the border conflict with Cambodia, with some speculating heavily on the return of Gen Prayut, who is now a member of the Privy Council.
They believe Pheu Thai would lose legitimacy if Ms Paetongtarn is removed by a court order and view Gen Prayut as a stronger and more credible choice to replace her.
However, Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science and law lecturer at Burapha University, said Thaksin is determined to keep Pheu Thai in power until the next election despite a serious plunge in public support as shown in recent opinion polls.
According to the findings of a Nida poll conducted nationwide from June 19-25, Ms Paetongtarn's approval rating fell to 9.2%, behind People's Party (PP) leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, Gen Prayut and Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul.
In the previous quarterly Nida Poll in March, she received support from 30.9% of respondents, the most favoured choice as the prime minister.
Mr Olarn said Thaksin has been trying to curb Bhumjaithai's influence by first taking over the Interior Ministry, which controls a sizable number of bureaucratic appointments and local administrative organisations.
Now that Bhumjaithai is in opposition, Interior Minister Phumtham Wechayachai has made key appointments to strengthen Pheu Thai's position. Those affiliated with the former coalition party were transferred to inactive posts.
The government is stepping up efforts to reclaim land plots at Khao Kradong in Buri Ram's Muang district, which are linked to the Chidchob family, and using its network to file complaints against Bhumjaithai for allegedly rigging last year's Senate election.
"He [Thaksin] won't let the Pheu Thai Party come to a premature end and will push for Mr Chaikasem to become prime minister to prolong the government's life for as long as possible," Mr Olarn said.
Thaksin is reportedly working to ensure coalition parties back former attorney-general Chaikasem Nitisiri to succeed Ms Paetongtarn if she cannot continue. It is believed that once Mr Chaikasem, who is the last of Pheu Thai's three prime ministerial candidates, is voted in, the government will use the 150-billion-baht economic stimulus budget to shore up public support ahead of the next polls in less than two years' time.
Mr Olarn said that the coalition partners are unlikely to be bothered about Mr Chaikasem's past support for revising Section 112 of the Criminal Code -- the lese majeste law.
Coalition parties have failed to meet public expectations, and they themselves count on forming an alliance with Pheu Thai, which is better positioned than other parties, after the next election, he said.
"This is provided Pheu Thai isn't sidelined before that," said Mr Olarn.
On the possibility of Gen Prayut's return, the analyst said that with Bhumjaithai -- deemed the most trusted option for conservative voters -- facing a legal case related to alleged manipulation of last year's Senate polls, which could lead to party dissolution, the conservative camp has limited options and may still favour a Gen Prayut comeback.
Pheu Thai cannot be fully trusted in its eyes and has done very little to end the PP's dominance of large swaths of young and educated voters, he said, adding that there is a strong likelihood that the red and orange camps may even form a partnership.
"For this reason, conservatives see a need to bring Gen Prayut back as prime minister to ensure that Pheu Thai is effectively 'finished'," he said.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).