Paetongtarn Shinawatra's political future hangs in the balance as the Constitutional Court prepares to hand down a ruling on the leaked phone call case next week.
The suspended prime minister appeared before the charter court judges on Thursday this week to defend herself in the high-profile case.
The accusation stems from her controversial phone conversation with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen, which was leaked just days before armed clashes erupted along the Thai-Cambodian border.
Meanwhile, her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, had reason to celebrate yesterday after the Criminal Court ruled in his favour in his lèse majesté case.
But the Pheu Thai patriarch still faces another serious challenge -- the so-called "14th floor saga", which refers to his extended hospitalisation despite the absence of serious illness, allegedly to avoid imprisonment.
Corrections Department and Police General Hospital officials are under fire for facilitating this arrangement.
The court has set Sept 9 for its ruling.
Most pundits remain pessimistic about the Shinawatras' chances.
Could this mark the end of the family's political dominance?
Ms Paetongtarn insists that the comments she made during the leaked phone call were made solely in the nation's interest, denying any personal benefit.
Some of her remarks -- such as her willingness to accommodate Hun Sen's demands and her description of the Second Army Region commander as "the opposite side" -- were, she maintained, mere negotiation techniques.
The seven-minute clip, however, sparked widespread anger, with many questioning her leadership and competence.
A group of senators subsequently petitioned the Constitutional Court -- another round of lawfare targeting the Shinawatra family -- while the Pheu Thai-led government's popularity has plummeted amid suspicions that personal tensions between the Shinawatras and Hun Sen have worsened the border conflict, which has caused casualties on both sides.
Observers point to troubling signs for Ms Paetongtarn's case, particularly the court's swift handling of the matter. The petition, filed on June 20, was quickly accepted. On a 7-2 vote, the court immediately suspended her from duty.
One of the minority judges, Nakarin Mektrairat, argued for a partial suspension, allowing her to continue in areas unrelated to national security, diplomacy, or the budget -- but this effectively still amounted to a suspension.
The leak of the call deeply unsettled the Thai public, who rallied behind the military as clashes erupted along the border.
While soldiers took control on the ground, government politicians appeared inept and disorganised. With nationalist sentiment surging, opinion polls show declining confidence in political institutions, even as military approval ratings rise.
What began as a border skirmish has now escalated into a broader conflict between the two neighbours, with Thailand preparing to file a case against Hun Sen at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Such a move is expected to provoke retaliation from Phnom Penh and risks prolonging hostilities with little chance of reconciliation.
It is worth noting that most Constitutional Court rulings in recent years have gone against Pheu Thai and the Shinawatras.
Thaksin narrowly survived the 1998 wealth concealment case by a single vote (8-7), buoyed at the time by his party's landslide election victory. But later premiers linked to Pheu Thai or its predecessor Thai Rak Thai were not so fortunate.
Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat (2008), Yingluck Shinawatra (2014), and Srettha Thavisin (2023) were all removed through lawfare.
By contrast, former junta leader Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha escaped unscathed despite multiple complaints -- including his occupation of a state-owned residence after retiring from the army, exceeding the eight-year limit as prime minister, and questions over his status as a state official, which should have disqualified him from office.
The court also ruled in favour of Capt Thamanat Prompow, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon's right-hand man, despite his prison record in Australia for drug offences.
The Constitutional Court has also played a pivotal, if controversial, role in dissolving major political parties, including Move Forward, Future Forward, Thai Rak Thai, and People's Power. These were all parties that had topped opinion polls and positioned themselves against the establishment.
Even though Pheu Thai has sought reconciliation with conservative factions, it is far from secure. The "14th floor saga" has made Thaksin and his party appear more of a liability than an asset.
Conservatives once hoped Thaksin's return from exile would help counter the Move Forward Party (now the People's Party), the main opposition force. Instead, Pheu Thai now faces a steep decline.
Thaksin's political aura has faded. With the economy struggling and the government's performance criticised, Pheu Thai risks shrinking to a medium-sized party in the next election.
The Cambodian conflict, exacerbated by the personal feud between the two families, may prove the final blow.
Rumours swirl of a backroom deal between Thaksin, conservative factions, and sympathetic judges, with speculation that Ms Paetongtarn could be acquitted by a 5-4 margin.
Some observers believe this is possible. If true, it would signal a new compromise between Thaksin and the establishment -- and a reprieve in the 14th floor case.
But such speculation could also be a pressure tactic aimed at swaying the court. Public scrutiny of the proceedings remains intense.
Another possibility is that Ms Paetongtarn could resign before the ruling, scheduled for Aug 29. If that were to happen, it would suggest Thaksin himself doubted her chances of acquittal.
A dismissal would have long-term -- perhaps permanent -- consequences for her political future.
In that scenario, Pheu Thai would likely nominate Chaikasem Nitisiri, its third candidate for prime minister, though questions remain about whether the party could form a stable government.
Either way, Thai politics faces another storm.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).