Rising School Absences and Long-Term Consequences
School absence rates in the UK have become a growing concern, with experts warning that nearly 180,000 students could face unemployment due to chronic absenteeism. A recent report by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) highlights the long-term risks associated with high levels of school absence, emphasizing that without immediate action, this issue could lead to a significant increase in young people who are not in education, employment, or training (Neet).
According to the latest data from the Department for Education (DfE), the number of children missing at least half of their school sessions—classified as “severely absent”—has increased. In autumn 2024, 147,605 pupils, or 2.04% of all students, were severely absent, up from 1.97% the previous year. Although this figure is still below the peak recorded in summer 2023, the CSJ warns that the trend is continuing upward, raising alarms about the future of the education system.
The think tank found that students from disadvantaged backgrounds are disproportionately affected. Those eligible for free school meals were nearly four times more likely to be severely absent than their peers, while children with special educational needs were seven times more likely to miss school. These disparities highlight deep-rooted inequalities within the education system.
Beth Prescott, the education lead at the CSJ, stressed that school absences should no longer be seen as a temporary post-pandemic issue. She warned that the problem is becoming entrenched, with serious consequences for both individuals and the economy. “This is sending a wave of harm through our economy, driving more young people towards a life of wasted potential and benefit dependency,” she said.
To address the crisis, the CSJ recommends supporting local charities that provide mentors to encourage regular school attendance. However, Prescott also emphasized the need to tackle the root causes of absenteeism, including parental attitudes toward education and an education system that fails to engage many students.
The CSJ conducted modeling based on previous studies, suggesting that between 2024/25 and 2028/29, there could be as many as 175,000 Neet 16- to 18-year-olds due to school absences. This projection underscores the urgency of the situation.
Despite these concerns, the DfE has reported some positive trends. The overall absence rate has decreased from 6.69% to 6.38%, meaning that on average, six out of every 100 pupils were absent on a typical school day. Persistent absence, defined as missing at least 10% of sessions, fell from 19.4% to 17.8%. This equates to 1.28 million children, down from 1.41 million the previous year.
However, the DfE acknowledges that the figures remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. The persistent absence rate is 40% higher than it was in autumn 2019, indicating that the challenge is far from resolved.
A DfE spokesperson highlighted the progress being made, stating that the government has taken decisive action to address the attendance crisis. “We inherited a broken school system, so we are taking decisive action through our plan for change to tackle the attendance crisis,” they said. They noted that over five million more days in school have been achieved this year, along with 140,000 fewer persistently absent pupils.
The DfE also mentioned initiatives such as free breakfast clubs, improved mental health support, and earlier intervention for children with special educational needs. A white paper outlining the government’s vision for the school system is expected later this year.
While the data shows some improvements, the CSJ and other experts argue that more must be done to ensure that all children have access to consistent and quality education. Addressing school absence is not just a matter of improving attendance—it is a critical step in securing the future of the next generation.